This year's College Football Playoffs may be the most intriguing yet, at least during the build-up. The first edition in 2014 turned out to be very unpredictable, with a No. 4 seed in Ohio State that most thought was the wrong pick eventually winning the title. But leading into the Buckeyes' semifinal game against Alabama, that game seemed destined to be a snoozefest.
This year, we have two intriguing matchups, and the first - and perhaps most intriguing - is the Rose Bowl game between No. 2 Oklahoma and No. 3 Georgia.
What makes this game interesting to me is what we really don't know. Oklahoma is known for a passing attack led by Heisman winner Baker Mayfield that has been virtually unstoppable. Even in a loss to Iowa State, Mayfield was phenomenal individually. Georgia, meanwhile, has thrived on a stifling defense and overwhelming rushing attack.
Even more interestingly, neither team has faced much competition that will test them the way their Rose Bowl opponent will, but they do have opponents that can give us a taste of what we can expect on New Year's Day.
First of all, it's no secret that Oklahoma's Big 12 opponents don't have the defensive strength that UGA possesses. However, Oklahoma did have a 31-16 non-conference win over Ohio State. The Buckeyes surrendered 183.5 passing yards per game this year, not a far cry from UGA's 158.3 per game. Mayfield completed 27 of his 35 attempts for 386 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in that game. Similarly, Ohio State surrenders 292 total yards per game to UGA's 271, and Oklahoma put up 490 against the Buckeyes.
In points per game, TCU is surprisingly comparable to UGA, surrendering just 17.6 points to Georgia's 13.2. Oklahoma put 38 and 41 points on the board against the Horned Frogs in two meetings.
This game is also fun because Georgia's defense hasn't been regularly tested by offenses like the one they'll see next Monday. The Bulldogs did see Missouri, though, and while the Tigers aren't near as talented overall as Oklahoma, they have similar offensive figures.
Missouri averaged 308.6 yards per game through the air compared to Oklahoma's 367.4. Drew Lock managed to complete 15 of 25 passes for 253 yards, four touchdowns and one interception against Georgia in a 53-28 loss. Overall, Missouri averages 502 yards per game to Oklahoma's 583, but the Tigers were good for just 312 against Georgia. Missouri was also held below its season average of 37.5 points, while Oklahoma averages 44.9.
That game may hold another key to the Rose Bowl, with Missouri giving Georgia fits early before the Georgia offense was able to pull away by controlling the ball for almost 40 minutes. For that reason, you have to look at Oklahoma's defensive success against a running team to see if the Sooners can avoid that fate.
Ohio State averages about 249 rushing yards per game, not far off from Georgia's 267 per game. The Buckeyes were only able to muster 167 yards, and it wasn't that they abandoned the run. They still had 34 carries, but were only able to get 4.9 yards per carry. Since Ohio State actually averaged more yards per attempt than Georgia this year, that's a bit of a telling stat.
It can't be said enough that all of these results were at least a few weeks back, or further in some cases, but it's all the evidence we really have. Based on all this, it seems to me that Oklahoma has had slightly more success against teams similar to Georgia than Georgia has against teams similar to Oklahoma, but the sample sizes are small.
Still, if I'm making a prediction here, I have to lean toward the Sooners, by a score of 35-24. Let the hate begin.
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