During the build to next week's Sugar Bowl matchup between No. 1 Clemson and No. 4 Alabama, you will hear people describe these two teams as "mirror images." Those people are absolutely correct in terms of statistics.
In fact, it would be difficult to match up two teams more similar in terms of total figures both offensively and defensively. Alabama is about 20 yards better against the run, giving up 94 yards per game to Clemson's 113 on the ground, but considering Clemson gave up about 200 and 150 yards, respectively, to run-heavy Georgia Tech and Citadel, that difference hardly matters.
Offensively, neither team is among the nation's elite, but they're respectable. Alabama racks up 465 yards per game, leaning slightly toward the run, while Clemson averages 448 yards per game, leaning more toward the pass.
While the result was different, they even had similar stats against common opponent Auburn. Clemson got 281 yards - 185 through the air - and scored 14 points in a win, while Bama got 314 yards - 211 on the ground - and scored 14 points in a loss.
The two teams also had a common opponent in Florida State, of course, but with Bama facing the Seminoles mostly before Deondre Francois got hurt, that game is hard to compare. That's also why I chose not to analyze the teams' defensive performance against Auburn, since Kerryon Johnson didn't play against Clemson and played a huge role against Alabama.
Further, I think we know what these teams are going to do defensively. Both are stifling with a loaded defensive front and are known to have incredibly well-coached units on that side of the ball.
So how have these teams done against other ranked opponents, besides Auburn?
Clemson has three other wins against teams ranked in the final playoff poll - Miami, Virginia Tech and NC State. Miami was their highest ranked win of that trio, with the Tigers winning 38-3 in an impressive ACC Championship Game performance against a Miami defense that gave up less than 20 points per game this year. Virginia Tech was a similar story, with the Tigers winning 31-17 against a Hokie defense that gave up 13.5 points per game this season. NC State gave the Tigers some trouble, but Clemson still managed to win 38-31.
Alabama beat LSU - which averaged surrendering 18.8 points per game this year - by a score of 24-10. They also managed to hold off Mississippi State by a score of 31-24 in a game that the Bulldogs, who gave up 20.4 points per game this year, coughed up a chance to win with late mistakes.
The biggest key, though, might be a freshman - Clemson running back Travis Etienne. With the Tigers still figuring out their offensive identity, Etienne didn't play against Auburn. Later in the year, he emerged as the team's top rusher with 744 yards and 13 touchdowns on 103 carries and showed blistering speed.
Adding that burst into Clemson's stable of backs, particularly against a Bama defense that has been hobbled at the linebacker position, will be huge for the Tigers. If Clemson can avoid mistakes, I expect Etienne and the Tigers to run away a bit late for a 28-13 win.
Click here to find out who I expect Clemson to face in the National Championship Game in Atlanta.
Friday, December 29, 2017
Thursday, December 28, 2017
Predicting the Rose Bowl - Georgia vs. Oklahoma
This year's College Football Playoffs may be the most intriguing yet, at least during the build-up. The first edition in 2014 turned out to be very unpredictable, with a No. 4 seed in Ohio State that most thought was the wrong pick eventually winning the title. But leading into the Buckeyes' semifinal game against Alabama, that game seemed destined to be a snoozefest.
This year, we have two intriguing matchups, and the first - and perhaps most intriguing - is the Rose Bowl game between No. 2 Oklahoma and No. 3 Georgia.
What makes this game interesting to me is what we really don't know. Oklahoma is known for a passing attack led by Heisman winner Baker Mayfield that has been virtually unstoppable. Even in a loss to Iowa State, Mayfield was phenomenal individually. Georgia, meanwhile, has thrived on a stifling defense and overwhelming rushing attack.
Even more interestingly, neither team has faced much competition that will test them the way their Rose Bowl opponent will, but they do have opponents that can give us a taste of what we can expect on New Year's Day.
First of all, it's no secret that Oklahoma's Big 12 opponents don't have the defensive strength that UGA possesses. However, Oklahoma did have a 31-16 non-conference win over Ohio State. The Buckeyes surrendered 183.5 passing yards per game this year, not a far cry from UGA's 158.3 per game. Mayfield completed 27 of his 35 attempts for 386 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in that game. Similarly, Ohio State surrenders 292 total yards per game to UGA's 271, and Oklahoma put up 490 against the Buckeyes.
In points per game, TCU is surprisingly comparable to UGA, surrendering just 17.6 points to Georgia's 13.2. Oklahoma put 38 and 41 points on the board against the Horned Frogs in two meetings.
This game is also fun because Georgia's defense hasn't been regularly tested by offenses like the one they'll see next Monday. The Bulldogs did see Missouri, though, and while the Tigers aren't near as talented overall as Oklahoma, they have similar offensive figures.
Missouri averaged 308.6 yards per game through the air compared to Oklahoma's 367.4. Drew Lock managed to complete 15 of 25 passes for 253 yards, four touchdowns and one interception against Georgia in a 53-28 loss. Overall, Missouri averages 502 yards per game to Oklahoma's 583, but the Tigers were good for just 312 against Georgia. Missouri was also held below its season average of 37.5 points, while Oklahoma averages 44.9.
That game may hold another key to the Rose Bowl, with Missouri giving Georgia fits early before the Georgia offense was able to pull away by controlling the ball for almost 40 minutes. For that reason, you have to look at Oklahoma's defensive success against a running team to see if the Sooners can avoid that fate.
Ohio State averages about 249 rushing yards per game, not far off from Georgia's 267 per game. The Buckeyes were only able to muster 167 yards, and it wasn't that they abandoned the run. They still had 34 carries, but were only able to get 4.9 yards per carry. Since Ohio State actually averaged more yards per attempt than Georgia this year, that's a bit of a telling stat.
It can't be said enough that all of these results were at least a few weeks back, or further in some cases, but it's all the evidence we really have. Based on all this, it seems to me that Oklahoma has had slightly more success against teams similar to Georgia than Georgia has against teams similar to Oklahoma, but the sample sizes are small.
Still, if I'm making a prediction here, I have to lean toward the Sooners, by a score of 35-24. Let the hate begin.
This year, we have two intriguing matchups, and the first - and perhaps most intriguing - is the Rose Bowl game between No. 2 Oklahoma and No. 3 Georgia.
What makes this game interesting to me is what we really don't know. Oklahoma is known for a passing attack led by Heisman winner Baker Mayfield that has been virtually unstoppable. Even in a loss to Iowa State, Mayfield was phenomenal individually. Georgia, meanwhile, has thrived on a stifling defense and overwhelming rushing attack.
Even more interestingly, neither team has faced much competition that will test them the way their Rose Bowl opponent will, but they do have opponents that can give us a taste of what we can expect on New Year's Day.
First of all, it's no secret that Oklahoma's Big 12 opponents don't have the defensive strength that UGA possesses. However, Oklahoma did have a 31-16 non-conference win over Ohio State. The Buckeyes surrendered 183.5 passing yards per game this year, not a far cry from UGA's 158.3 per game. Mayfield completed 27 of his 35 attempts for 386 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in that game. Similarly, Ohio State surrenders 292 total yards per game to UGA's 271, and Oklahoma put up 490 against the Buckeyes.
In points per game, TCU is surprisingly comparable to UGA, surrendering just 17.6 points to Georgia's 13.2. Oklahoma put 38 and 41 points on the board against the Horned Frogs in two meetings.
This game is also fun because Georgia's defense hasn't been regularly tested by offenses like the one they'll see next Monday. The Bulldogs did see Missouri, though, and while the Tigers aren't near as talented overall as Oklahoma, they have similar offensive figures.
Missouri averaged 308.6 yards per game through the air compared to Oklahoma's 367.4. Drew Lock managed to complete 15 of 25 passes for 253 yards, four touchdowns and one interception against Georgia in a 53-28 loss. Overall, Missouri averages 502 yards per game to Oklahoma's 583, but the Tigers were good for just 312 against Georgia. Missouri was also held below its season average of 37.5 points, while Oklahoma averages 44.9.
That game may hold another key to the Rose Bowl, with Missouri giving Georgia fits early before the Georgia offense was able to pull away by controlling the ball for almost 40 minutes. For that reason, you have to look at Oklahoma's defensive success against a running team to see if the Sooners can avoid that fate.
Ohio State averages about 249 rushing yards per game, not far off from Georgia's 267 per game. The Buckeyes were only able to muster 167 yards, and it wasn't that they abandoned the run. They still had 34 carries, but were only able to get 4.9 yards per carry. Since Ohio State actually averaged more yards per attempt than Georgia this year, that's a bit of a telling stat.
It can't be said enough that all of these results were at least a few weeks back, or further in some cases, but it's all the evidence we really have. Based on all this, it seems to me that Oklahoma has had slightly more success against teams similar to Georgia than Georgia has against teams similar to Oklahoma, but the sample sizes are small.
Still, if I'm making a prediction here, I have to lean toward the Sooners, by a score of 35-24. Let the hate begin.
Monday, December 18, 2017
Players have value beyond the trade market
The title of this post may seem ridiculously obvious, and it should. That said, I often wonder if some baseball fans and writers truly understand this concept.
Of course, the player and potential trade that sparked this discussion was the idea of trading Ender Inciarte for the Cubs' Ian Happ, as outlined in a piece by Tyler Wilson for "Tomahawk Take." Now before I go any further, I want to say that this was a well-written piece with plenty of logical defenses for the idea, and I'm not bashing the writer in any way. If I were to be swayed to make such a deal, Tyler's arguments would have done it.
But this is where so many modern baseball fans stray so far from what I think we should be as fans.
Ender Inciarte has been one of the bright spots for the Braves in the last couple years. He's won a Gold Glove both years that he's been the starting center fielder for the Braves and made the All-Star Game in 2017. On top of that, Ender is a reliable .290-.300 hitter that started showing a little pop last year and doesn't strike out a lot.
Why would a team want to get rid of that?
Even with young stars like Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies ready to take their spots in the Atlanta Braves' lineup, there's still a great spot for Inciarte. Albies probably is a more appropriate leadoff hitter for the Braves as he has a little more speed than Inciarte, but Inciarte can absolutely hit second and fill that role. In fact, I'm thrilled about the prospect of having those two at the top of the lineup.
As for Acuna, there may come a day when he needs to be the center fielder for the Atlanta Braves, but why rush it? Why not allow him the opportunity to learn alongside a young guy who has established himself as one of the top defensive outfielders in the game for a couple years before you thrust a teenager into the center of things?
This notion of trading Ender is the same thought process that led to trading Andrelton Simmons and the same one that made Freddie Freeman the topic of discussion for a couple years. And I get it. Inciarte's value as a trade piece may never be higher than it is right now, but there's a reason for that. It's because his value as a baseball player may never be higher, and it's also important to note that his value to Atlanta Braves' fans is also very high.
If the Braves are going to be contenders any time soon, the team needs eight good baseball players in their lineup. They currently have a good-hitting defensive stud in center field, and he's under control for five years and less than $36 million. The same things that make him valuable to other teams should also make him valuable to his current team, and that's something that should always be kept in mind.
NOTE: Slight edit in the 3rd paragraph to clarify original intent.
Of course, the player and potential trade that sparked this discussion was the idea of trading Ender Inciarte for the Cubs' Ian Happ, as outlined in a piece by Tyler Wilson for "Tomahawk Take." Now before I go any further, I want to say that this was a well-written piece with plenty of logical defenses for the idea, and I'm not bashing the writer in any way. If I were to be swayed to make such a deal, Tyler's arguments would have done it.
But this is where so many modern baseball fans stray so far from what I think we should be as fans.
Ender Inciarte has been one of the bright spots for the Braves in the last couple years. He's won a Gold Glove both years that he's been the starting center fielder for the Braves and made the All-Star Game in 2017. On top of that, Ender is a reliable .290-.300 hitter that started showing a little pop last year and doesn't strike out a lot.
Why would a team want to get rid of that?
Even with young stars like Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies ready to take their spots in the Atlanta Braves' lineup, there's still a great spot for Inciarte. Albies probably is a more appropriate leadoff hitter for the Braves as he has a little more speed than Inciarte, but Inciarte can absolutely hit second and fill that role. In fact, I'm thrilled about the prospect of having those two at the top of the lineup.
As for Acuna, there may come a day when he needs to be the center fielder for the Atlanta Braves, but why rush it? Why not allow him the opportunity to learn alongside a young guy who has established himself as one of the top defensive outfielders in the game for a couple years before you thrust a teenager into the center of things?
This notion of trading Ender is the same thought process that led to trading Andrelton Simmons and the same one that made Freddie Freeman the topic of discussion for a couple years. And I get it. Inciarte's value as a trade piece may never be higher than it is right now, but there's a reason for that. It's because his value as a baseball player may never be higher, and it's also important to note that his value to Atlanta Braves' fans is also very high.
If the Braves are going to be contenders any time soon, the team needs eight good baseball players in their lineup. They currently have a good-hitting defensive stud in center field, and he's under control for five years and less than $36 million. The same things that make him valuable to other teams should also make him valuable to his current team, and that's something that should always be kept in mind.
NOTE: Slight edit in the 3rd paragraph to clarify original intent.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)